I know I know, I haven't blogged about politics in so long, in actual fact I've written tons of post (well not tons, but a few) but before I finish the post, something different happens that competly changes the race, and thus the post is not relevant, and I delete it and then I write something new, and then it changes again, but I am absolutly determined to finish this post, so I will. Since the last time I've posted Gingrich has lost his position of dominance as Romney's primary rival, and champion of the consertivite faction, and Sanatorium has taken over. He's now picking up large amount of evangelical and highly conservative votes, votes that typically when to Ginagrich, however Romney has still remained, abliet shakily, the front-runner position.
How has he remained this way? well firstly a bit of luck, after disappointing performances in the caucus states of Colorado and Minisota, he managed to turn his campaign around to win in both Arizona and Missori primaries. How did he do this, well basically because when it comes down to it, Romney has the supiror campaign, and resources, which really is essential for the primaries, with many more people voting than in the caucus states (Maine anyone). Also Arizona and Missori were, just on face value, more likely to go to Romney than Santorium, But Santorium periodically gaining is actually conversely helping Romney. After Santorium peaking, Romeny obviously dop in the polls, thus lowering expectations, which his campaign is now doing rather excellently, and so when his campaigning returns, as it always does when the momentum, which is having an especially short-life span this election cycle. However by exceeding exceptions means that Romney gets a huge postitive boost going into super tuesday, especially after his recent win in the small, but caucus state, which Romney is performing poorly in, of Washington.
All this seems like Romney is doing really well, in part due to good campaigning, but more due to good luck. Firstly Gingrich, just by staying in the competition, is a serious boost to Romney's campaign. Although Santorium is stealing a lot of Gingrich's voters, he still hasn't got all of the, and Gingrich is so much closer to Santorium than to Romney, and almost his entire share would go to Santorium. THis also means that Gingrich and to a certain extent Paul are actively campaigning and trying to steal from Santorium, making it possible for Romney to win, even if he does have this 'celling'.
So what does this mean for the rest of the race? Well at the moment I'd wager that Romney will still eventually win the nomination, and if he manages to scrape a win in Iowa, I'd give him very good odds, however I think its going to be a rocky race and quite possibly come down to a battle of the delegates at the convention. Unless either Paul or Gingrich drops out, Santorum will still probably continue to pick up the caucus states, and other very conservative states, as his campaign, lacking funds, is definitely more the grass-roots campaign which is suited to the caucus states, however these states do not have very many delegates, especially not pledged delegates, so if it does get down to a delegate war, Romney will again have to advantage, so although it might be a long struggle, I think it might go down to Romney.
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