Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Why Romney lost South Carolina

The third stop in the presidential nomination campaign, and possibly the most important so far had an upset for Romeny, but really one to be expected. While doing a great job managing expectations in Iowa, he completely screwed it up once he got to new Hampshire. New Hampshire which he would have won anyway on account of it being one of the more liberal states, Romney then started talking like he had won the candinancy, in speeches he focused on Obama instead of his opposition, which would have been great ground work had he actually won the nomination. South Carolina voters were always more likely to go for someone like Gingrich, not only being the much more conservative candidate, especially compared to how quite frankly liberal Romney is for a republican, not to mention the fact that South Carolinians (Carolinens?) like to feel like they are an influential state, who can decide the nomination, especially compared to the very small New Hampshire and Iowa. Romney really took his lead for granted, which is never a good idea, especially when it was achieved more or less by luck. Romney was leading really by default, due his opponents fighting against each other, while he escaped relatively unscathed and due to strong performances in Iowa many people called the presidential campaign a three way race between Paul, Santorum and Romney, but in reality Romney was the only one with a national campaign, and thus Santorum and Pauls lead would have to be really based on momentum, something that was note really going to happen due to the real reversal of ideologies going from Iowa to New Hampshire. Romney also really didn't perform spectactually in New Hampshire, given the competition, and got no momentum off either, so it isn't really suprissing that another candidate was able to beat him, and with a very strong showing in the polls and a strong national campaign, that candidate was Gingrich, who really is, Romney's real competitor

Does that mean all is lost for Romney, well no, but he'll have to work hard to get it back. Firstly he'll have to start talking like he's the nominee already, and he'll have to go hard with the adds, he has the rather large advantage of having a huge personal fortune so spamming adds in Florida can only help, especially if they are targeted against Gingrich who if he was paying attention to polling figures, is going to offer up the stiffest competition

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