Yes it is only February, but the scary season of TV is well uponn us, and for, having the fortune to like very high rating shows, the show I am really worried about it Fringe. Fringe is so beautifully fantastic, but with positivly awful ratings that would get it yanked off the air on many a network, it has clung onto it's Friday night. But does it have a chance at coming back? that is the million dollar question.
Fox usually cancels at least 4 hours of drama each year, so basically Fringe just has to be slightly better than the 4 it cancels, with House ending this year, thats only 3 shows that have to be cancelled. Now due to American Idol and the X-factor, and the fact Fox doesn't program the 10p hour they don't have that much drama and their sunday night or animation is essentially set, there is very few shows for which Fringe to 'beat'. Although Glee is getting a lot worse, it is still almost definitely coming back, New Girl is also a shoe in for renewal, and Bones is also extremely likely. That just leaves, Terra Nova, Alcatraz, Breaking In, The Finder and Touch. Now luckily all of these shows have fairly marginal ratings, however unfortunately all of these shows only have half-seasons. Thus the possibility of a full season of Fringe is unfortunately really unlikely. Also assuming Bones is getting a full season pick-up, and Fox doesn't expand its comedy hours (which is unfortunately quite possible) 4 or 3 of these shows must be cancelled.
Thankfully Alcatraz has rather quickly declining ratings, as with it's quality, thus as long as the ratings continure to decline, it probably will be cancelled. Terra Nova did not have great ratings, but unfortunately they weren't that bad to make for instant cancelation. It has so-so ratings, but being a hugely expensive freshman show, it does not get much layway for bad ratings, another thing is that as the Australian dollar is stronger, it is again more expensive, and I don't think that Fox really wants to get in bed with another expensive, cultish, low ratings show, and they definitely don't want 2, or 3 of them, so there is a very real possibility it could get cancelled.
The Finder, although I enjoy the show, does have pretty poor ratings, it is currently on after American idol, and thus its ratings ae almost entirely inflated. So there is a very real possibly that Fox will also cancel it, knowing that the ratings are not going to continue. It reminds me of the Criminal Minds spin-off, because spinoff usually don't get a lot of layway, especially since Bones is also dipping in ratings. (actually I'm watching Bones right now, and it does seem like it is it's final season, although I still think its got a few more left in it luckily)
Then we have Breaking In. I personally believe this was picked up when they shorten the season of Bones, as it was canceled last season and had pretty terrible ratings, I don't think its very likely to get a third season, so even though it hasn't premiered yet, I'd say that it easily a lock for cancelation, so hopefully thats one less show to beat.
Finally we have Touch. I personally didn't like this very much, but the preview drew big ratings, well a 3.3 which is more like very respectable ratings instead of good ones, however previews do often rate higher, and there have been countless examples of shows that have had huge ratings drops.
Unfortunalty last years Fringe renewal came on March 23rd, meaning as Fringe has wrapped up for 4 weeks, there is no chance ofr its ratings to rise, and only a small amount of times for shows like Breaking in and Touch ratings to fall. As they have said in multiple occasions, they are going to give Fringe enough time to wrap up the series, they are more likely to cancel it early, and wait to decide on other shows, instead of renewing Fringe, and cancelling shows with ratings falling, but shows that aren't awful yet. Although the same thing does also go for Terra Nova, so there is some hope.
There is one other possibility, American Idol's ratings are crashing, and crashing hard, they are still very good, but still just good, they're around the average of good shows. Not to mention, as in all seasons in American Idol the ratings decline every week, so the ratings could be right down by the end of the season. Idol is an extremely, extremely expensive show, and while the ratings might be on the slightly higher end of spectrum, there is a possibility they might want to retire Idol on a high note, maintaining it's legacy, instead of putting it out for another season, and waiting for the ratings to crash and have to slink off the schedule.
While Fringe is also really expensive, what it really has going for it, is syndication possibilities. 13 episodes would it 101, thus making it possible for syndication, and although it is possible to syndicate it at 88 episodes, the more episodes, the more money Fox makes off it.
Of course if Fringe is going to be renewed it probably is only going to be for a 13 season, series finale (so no chance of ratings getting better and getting a 6th season) and on a hugely reduced budget, but any Fringe is better than no Fringe.
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